Beware immediate reactions – the dust needs to settle.

2024 is a year of elections around the world from Algeria to Venezuela (via Tuvalu). At the time of writing, the polls define the UK’s vote as a foregone conclusion, even if their past record (e.g. on Trump and Brexit) points to some caution being necessary.

Whoever wins, there will be no Budget before at least mid-September. Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves ruled out a summer Budget because she wants a full report from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) first. The OBR requires ten weeks’ notice to crunch the numbers, leaving only a small gap before party conference season begins. For the Conservatives, Jeremy Hunt (or his replacement) would also want an OBR report before acting – the Liz Truss mini-Budget has made it impossible to do otherwise.

Whoever enters No 11 must also prepare a Spending Review, theoretically running for three years from April 2025. That Review needs to be published by November. It is possible, particularly if the first female Chancellor moves in, that there could be an interim one-year Review, to give the new government more time to settle in and develop its spending plans. Consequently, the significant Budget may not be in the Autumn, but next Spring.

Those timings reinforce a lesson from many past elections: hold off taking rushed investment decisions based on initial results and reactions. The picture should be much clearer later in the year.